(My Sportsbook) - In the National Football League, there is truly no place like home. When the
Seattle Seahawks try to take down the
San Francisco 49ers on Sunday at Qwest Field, they will be doing so in the interest of keeping those home fires burning well into the month of January.
Seattle enters Week 14 with the best mark in the NFC at 10-2, and can draw nearer to homefield advantage in the division by defeating San Francisco. Mike Holmgren and company clinched the NFC West thanks to the St. Louis Rams' loss to the Redskins last Sunday, and celebrated by heading to Philadelphia and whipping the Eagles, 42-0, on Monday night. The victory was the franchise- record-tying eighth in a row for the Hawks, who have a one-game edge over 9-3 Carolina and Chicago in the race for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
The Seahawks will be facing a San Francisco team that dropped its fifth straight game in the form of a 17-10 loss to the Cardinals last Sunday. The 49ers are one of three NFL teams (Green Bay, N.Y. Jets) that sit at 2-10 as Week 14 begins, just one game better than the 1-11 Texans for the worst record in the NFL.
SERIES HISTORY
Seattle leads the all-time series with San Francisco, 7-6, breaking a deadlock in the series by taking a 27-25 win on the road in Week 11. The Hawks have won the last five in a row since San Francisco swept a home-and-home against its NFC West rival in 2002.
Holmgren is 10-3 versus San Francisco, where he served as an assistant from 1986 through 1991. Holmgren was 5-1 against the Niners during his tenure as head coach with Green Bay (1993-98), including a 3-1 record in the playoffs. The 49ers' Mike Nolan is 0-1 against both Holmgren and the Seahawks as a head coach.
49ERS OFFENSE VS. SEAHAWKS DEFENSE
Making the fourth start of his NFL career will be 49ers rookie quarterback Alex Smith (385 passing yards, 0 TD, 8 INT), who appeared to make at least small strides in last week's loss to the Cardinals. Smith completed 16-of-24 passes for a season-high 185 yards, though he also tossed three interceptions and failed to log the first touchdown strike of his NFL career. The Utah product has a dismal 28.1 passer rating on the year, which is last among the four quarterbacks that have started for the 49ers this season. Smith was able to throw downfield with some consistency to wideouts Brandon Lloyd (38 receptions, 4 TD) and Johnnie Morton (20 receptions), which was a change from the rookie's previous starts. Lloyd led the Niners with five catches for 47 yards, and Morton hauled in three receptions for a team-high 66 yards. Starting wideout Arnaz Battle (25 receptions, 3 TD), who missed last week's game with a knee injury, is considered questionable for this week. Jason McAddley (3 receptions), who had three catches last week, will likely serve as the team's No. 3 receiver. Tight end Terry Jones (5 receptions), who has receptions in each of his three games as a 49er, will provide Smith another target over the middle of the field. The weak San Francisco line has allowed 34 sacks on the year, including three last week. The Niners are 31st in the league in passing offense (124.5 yards per game).
If the Seattle secondary and pass rush makes as many plays on Sunday as they did in Philadelphia on Monday, Smith and the 49ers are in for a long day. The Seahawks forced six Eagles turnovers in the rout, returning three for touchdowns and another to the Philly 2-yard line to set up another score. Cornerback Andre Dyson (20 tackles, 1 INT) had two of the TDs, one on an interception, the other on a fumble return, but is expected to miss the remainder of the regular season after suffering a high ankle sprain. Jordan Babineaux (40 tackles, 3 INT) is expected to start in place of Dyson. Elsewhere in the secondary, strong safety Michael Boulware (52 tackles, 4 INT, 2 sacks) was able to record his team-leading fourth pick of the year on Monday. The Seattle pass rush, meanwhile, posted four sacks and led directly to the Eagles' many miscues. Rookie linebacker Leroy Hill (44 tackles, 6.5 sacks) led the way with a sack-and-a-half, six tackles, and a forced fumble in the game. Tackle Rocky Bernard (38 tackles, 8.5 sacks) and end Bryce Fisher (39 tackles, 8 sacks) each had half-a-sack in the game to remain 1-2 on the team in that category. The Seahawks lead the NFL with 40 sacks on the year, which has helped mask the deficiencies of a team that ranks just 22nd in the NFL against the pass (215.2 yards per game).
The lack of a running game hurt Smith's chances of notching his first career win last week, but the rookie could be getting some help in that regard on Sunday. Starter Kevan Barlow (548 rushing yards, 3 TD, 29 receptions), who missed last week's game due to a knee injury, is expected to be back in the lineup on Sunday. In his absence, Maurice Hicks (130 rushing yards, 2 TD) received the start and carried 10 times for 17 yards and the team's only touchdown of the day. Rookie Frank Gore (348 rushing yards, 1 TD) led the Niners with 22 yards on six totes, also contributing a 31-yard catch out of the backfield. San Francisco is 23rd in the league in rushing offense (93.2 yards per game) as Week 14 begins.
The Seahawks enter Sunday's game ranked a respectable 12th in NFL rushing defense (104.7 yards per game), and come off a performance in which they bottled the Eagles up on the ground. Three Philadelphia running backs combined for 46 yards on 21 carries in the contest, with rookie linebacker Lofa Tatupu (90 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 INT) helping to lead that effort. Tatupu finished with a game-high nine tackles and a 38-yard interception return for a touchdown. Up front, tackle Chuck Darby (28 tackles, 2.5 sacks) led Seattle linemen with five stops, and fellow DT Marcus Tubbs (26 tackles, 2 sacks) returned from a three-game absence to contribute two tackles, half-a-sack, and a fumble recovery to the proceedings.
SEAHAWKS OFFENSE VS. 49ERS DEFENSE
Due to the Seahawks' defensive onslaught on Monday night, running back Shaun Alexander (1388 rushing yards, 22 TD) was not in the game long or often enough to enhance his case for NFL MVP. But Alexander was able to make an impact nonetheless, rushing 19 times for 49 yards and his 21st and 22nd touchdowns of the season. Alexander, who leads the NFL in rushing, touchdowns and scoring, needs five more touchdowns to tie the NFL record for touchdowns in a season, set by Priest Holmes in 2003. The Monday night rout also spelled extended action for backup rushers Maurice Morris (204 rushing yards, 1 TD) and Leonard Weaver (39 rushing yards). Morris carried a career-high-tying 15 times for 33 yards, and Weaver added 10 yards on five totes. Fullback Mack Strong (70 rushing yards, 18 receptions) did not have a catch for only the second time this season but did carry twice for four yards. The Hawks rank third in the league in rushing offense (151.1 yards per game) as Week 14 begins.
Alexander will be working against a San Francisco defense that currently ranks 20th in the NFL against the run (115.1 yards per game), and held the Cardinals' stagnant rushing attack to 65 yards on the ground last week. Inside linebackers Derek Smith (79 tackles, 1 INT) and Brandon Moore (50 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 INT) have been at the heart of the team's run-stopping effort all season. Smith posted a game-high 11 tackles against Arizona. In the trenches, end Marques Douglas (42 tackles, 1 sack) and nose tackle Anthony Adams (32 tackles, 2 sacks) have quietly and consistently played well for Nolan's crew. Douglas led 49er linemen with five tackles versus the Cardinals.
A Seattle passing game that was scarcely needed in Monday night's rout of the Eagles could get a major boost this week, as No. 1 wideout Darrell Jackson (29 receptions, 2 TD) has a chance to return from a knee injury that has sidelined him for eight games. Jackson is listed as questionable on this week's injury report. Without him last week, Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck (2704 passing yards, 15 TD, 8 INT) completed a mere 8-of-15 passes for 98 yards and a touchdown. Most of the QB's passing work came on the 16-play opening drive, which culminated in an 11-yard scoring strike to Bobby Engram (51 receptions, 1 TD). The TD was the first of the year for Engram, who finished with three catches for 34 yards. Engram took over the lead in receiving yards from Joe Jurevicius (44 receptions, 7 TD), who did not have a catch for the first time this year. Tight end Jerramy Stevens (33 receptions, 2 TD) logged a team-high four receptions for 22 yards in the game, and No. 3 wideout D.J. Hackett (20 receptions, 2 TD) made his only grab of the day count for 42 yards. Hasselbeck was not sacked in the Philadelphia game, and has been dumped just 19 times all year. The Hawks are 13th in the league in passing offense (218.6 yards per game) at present.
The 49ers continue to rank dead last in the NFL in passing defense (285.9 yards per game), not helping their cause by allowing the Cardinals' Kurt Warner to accrue 354 yards through the air last week. Complicating matters for the young San Francisco secondary this week is the expected absence of free safety Mike Adams (66 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack), who has a sprained knee. With Adams out, the Niners will start three defensive backs with less than two years of experience - safeties Ben Emanuel (22 tackles) and Keith Lewis (19 tackles, 1 INT) along with cornerback Bruce Thornton (25 tackles, 1 INT) - on Sunday. Lewis had one of the Niners' two interceptions of Warner last week. The San Francisco pass rush could get a boost if top sack man and end Bryant Young (29 tackles, 8 sacks) is able to return from a two-game absence due to a knee injury. Young is considered questionable for Sunday. The 49ers had two sacks of Warner last Sunday, both by Moore (50 tackles, 4 sacks).
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Alex Smith appeared to take a step forward in last week's loss to the Cardinals, moving the 49ers better than he had in previous contests. But Smith doesn't figure to progress against the Seahawks, who have one of the best pressure packages of any team in the league and won't let Smith throw downfield very often. As for the 49er defense, there aren't nearly enough experienced players to keep the Seahawks' weapons in check for four quarters. The Niners snuck up on the Hawks and kept the game close when the teams met in San Francisco, but the same is not likely occur in the return matchup.
My Sportsbook Predicted Outcome: Seahawks 38, 49ers 14
