(My Sportsbook) - January 1st marks the final day of the NFL regular season, and figures, as usual, to include a number of intriguing matchups. Panthers/Falcons, Bengals/Chiefs, and Bears/Vikings are among the Week 17 tilts that are projected to have postseason implications.

But just as many eyes will likely be upon San Francisco's Monster Park that Sunday, as the San Francisco 49ers (currently 2-11) and Houston Texans (1-12) will face off in a contest that could determine who chooses No. 1 in the 2006 NFL Draft.

Both the 49ers and Texans will be earnestly attempting to taste a rare victory at some point over the final three weeks of the regular season, but a win for either would jeopardize the opportunity to pick first.

San Francisco plays at Jacksonville (9-4) and St. Louis (5-8) before Houston comes to town, and the Texans host Arizona (4-9) and the Jaguars. If the Niners and Houston were to finish in a tie for the bottom spot, the team with the weaker 2005 strength of schedule would have the opportunity to select first. The clubs' strength of schedule is almost identical at the moment.

Who will be the favorite when the Texans face the 49ers? Right now, it is hard to believe that it will be the home team.

San Francisco's latest embarrassment was a 41-3 loss in Seattle on Sunday, a game in which Mike Nolan's depleted team sank to new lows.

The 49ers rang up a grand total of 113 offensive yards, their lowest output since the beginning of the Bill Walsh era in the late 1970s. Rookie Alex Smith and the offense registered criminally low figures for completions (9), first downs (8), and passing yards (77), while suffering far too many sacks (4) and turnovers (2) to keep the team in the game against a strong opponent.

The defense was also horrendous, allowing Seattle 438 yards and letting Matt Hasselbeck toss four touchdown passes in the game's first two-and-a-half quarters.

All of which begs the following burning questions:

1. If the 49ers do pick first, or even if they select second, what would be the wise thing to do with the selection?

2. Would taking USC phenom Reggie Bush really solve the problems of a team that needs up to three offensive linemen, a pass rusher or two, a run-stopper or two, and as many as three defensive backs, in addition to a first-rate running back?

3. Will the notoriously tight-fisted 49ers' ownership be willing to part with top-pick signing bonus money for a second straight year?

4. How long is Smith going to be able to look like the second coming of Ryan Leaf before some serious progress is expected of him? Is it unthinkable that the Niners could look at Matt Leinart, Vince Young, Brady Quinn, or any of the other blue chip quarterbacks expected to be available this season?

Nolan and de facto 49ers GM Scot McCloughan aren't likely to answer any of these questions until the team's season careens to a merciful end, if ever. The head coach refuses to talk about draft position during a season in which the team still has three chances to improve on last year's 2-14 abomination.

But regardless of the organization's public stance at present, the biggest questions for the 49ers have little to do with whether the team will actually win a third game in 2005.

SMITH'S GROWING PAINS COME WITH THE TERRITORY

Perhaps we're being a bit impatient with Smith here, since the Utah product hasn't done much worse in his first four starts than the No. 1 picks that came before him. Of the last four quarterbacks to be selected first overall and to start four games during their rookie season (Smith, Eli Manning, David Carr, and Tim Couch), none have had anything resembling success in their opening quartet of contests.

Of that group, Smith actually ranks first in completion percentage (49.4), ahead of Couch (47.8), Carr (44.8), and Manning (38.6).

He is last in passing yards (428) behind Manning (450), Carr (519) and Couch (622), last in interceptions (9), behind Manning (6), Carr (6), and Couch (2), and last in touchdown passes (0), behind Manning (1), Couch (3), and Carr (4).

Perhaps most tellingly, Carr was the only member of the group to lead his team to a win in his first four starts, beginning his career 1-3. Smith, Manning, and Couch all lost each of their first four.

LOST THE RECEIPT

With Arnaz Battle (knee) out due to injury and Johnnie Morton inactive on Sunday, Smith was throwing to a receiving group that included unheralded Jason McAddley in a starting spot and rookies Otis Amey, Marcus Maxwell, and Rasheed Marshall in reserve roles.

Not surprisingly, Smith completed only four passes to wide receivers against Seattle, including three for 37 yards to No. 1 wideout Brandon Lloyd and one for four yards to McAddley.

UP NEXT

The 49ers will this week travel to Jacksonville to face a Jaguars team coming off a loss to the Colts. The Jaguars and 49ers have met just once all-time, a 41-3 Jacksonville rout at home during the 1999 season.