(My Sportsbook) - The individual most impacted by Sunday's matchup between the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers doesn't figure to be anywhere in the vicinity of Monster Park.

USC running back and 2005 Heisman Trophy Winner Reggie Bush might be watching the contest of two of the NFL's worst teams from some undisclosed location, pondering whether one of the bumbling franchises will soon be his employer, but he won't witness Sunday's carnage first-hand.

Should the 49ers beat the Texans in the regular season finale for both teams, Houston will clinch the NFL's worst record and will have won the right to select first in the 2006 Draft. It is believed that the Texans would waste no time deliberating whether or not to select the phenom, although Bush has not officially announced that he will declare for the draft. If Houston defeats San Francisco, the Texans, 49ers, and possibly the Jets, Packers, and/or Saints will all be in the mix for the top pick.

Even while coveting Bush behind the scenes, Houston will be trying to avoid the distinction of being the NFL's worst team in 2005. The Texans were 38-20 losers to Jacksonville last week, failing to extend their winning streak to two games after defeating Arizona the week before. It is widely assumed that Sunday will mark the last game in the four-year tenure of head coach Dom Capers, who has endured rumors about his job status for most of the season.

San Francisco, meanwhile, comes off perhaps its most positive moment of the 2005 season. The 49ers were 24-20 winners in St. Louis, as rookie quarterback Alex Smith engineered his first victory as an NFL starter. With a triumph this week, the Niners can double their win total from the 2004 season, and can also end the year with their first two-game winning streak since the 2002 campaign.

SERIES HISTORY

The Texans and 49ers will be meeting for the first time.

Capers does have some history against the 49ers, however, having gone 3-5 against them while serving as head coach of the Carolina Panthers (1995-98). Capers was 2-2 in games played at San Francisco during that time.

TEXANS OFFENSE VS. 49ERS DEFENSE

The big question for the Texans' offense this week is the personnel situation in the backfield, as running back Domanick Davis (knee) is out and backup Jonathan Wells (thigh) is considered questionable for Sunday. The possible absence of both players means that rookie Vernand Morency (101 rushing yards, 1 TD) could be in line for his first NFL start against the 49ers. Wells (325 rushing yards, 4 TD, 22 receptions) carried 21 times for 86 yards in the loss to the Jags, also catching three passes for 33 yards out of the backfield. Morency spelled Wells with four carries for 12 yards in the contest, and added a 14-yard catch to the festivities. The running game has been the most consistent element of the Texans' offense this season, as Houston ranks 14th in NFL rushing offense (115.2 yards per game) heading into Week 17.

The 49ers enter Sunday's game ranked 21st in the league in rushing defense (116.3 yards per game), and come off a week in which they held the Rams' ground game firmly in check. St. Louis managed just 44 rushing yards on 21 carries for the day, including 28 yards on 16 carries for starter Steven Jackson. Inside linebacker and 2005 team defensive MVP Derek Smith (109 tackles, 1 INT) notched a game-high 12 tackles against the Rams, and fellow ILB Brandon Moore (67 tackles, 5 sacks, 1 INT) added four stops in the win. On the line, end Marques Douglas (56 tackles, 1 sack) was the most active 49er with five tackles against St. Louis.

With the running back situation uncertain on Sunday, the Texans will likely need a big effort out of quarterback David Carr (2465 passing yards, 14 TD, 11 INT) and the passing attack. Carr played one of his best games of the 2005 season to date last week, completing 19-of-29 passes for 295 yards with two touchdowns and an interception against the Jaguars. Wideouts Andre Johnson (62 receptions, 2 TD) and Corey Bradford (32 receptions, 4 TD) also made a heavy impact, with Johnson catching seven passes for 119 yards and a touchdown and Bradford going for four catches, 101 yards, and a touchdown of his own. Over the middle of the field, Carr found a target in tight end Marcellus Rivers (19 receptions), who caught four passes for 28 yards to continue his late-season ascent. As usual, Carr's biggest problem was finding time to throw, as he was sacked four times to bring Houston's NFL-worst total in that category to 68 for the year. The Texans rank 30th in the league in passing offense (136.1 yards per game) at present.

Though the Niners come into Sunday's game ranked dead last in NFL passing defense (282.1 yards per game), the team's young secondary corps has found a way to make some big plays in recent weeks. Safety Ben Emanuel (32 tackles, 1 INT, 0.5 sacks) and cornerback Shawntae Spencer (76 tackles, 4 INT) both managed interceptions of the Rams' Jamie Martin last week, helping ease the sting of Martin's 354-yard passing performance just a bit. Spencer was also credited with six tackles in the contest. The 49er pass rush had just one sack of Martin, that going to outside linebacker Andre Carter (43 tackles, 4.5 sacks). Tackle Bryant Young (34 tackles, 8 sacks), who leads the 49ers in sacks, has not posted one since Oct. 30th.

49ERS OFFENSE VS. TEXANS DEFENSE

Fresh off the finest performance of his young pro career is 49ers quarterback Alex Smith (716 passing yards, 0 TD, 10 INT), who completed 12-of-16 passes for 131 yards without a touchdown or interception against the Rams, and most importantly, notched his first NFL win. Four players notched multiple receptions in the St. Louis game, and oddly enough given the team's catch distribution this season, none of those players was a running back. Wideout Arnaz Battle (29 receptions, 3 TD) led the way with four catches for 37 yards, fellow receivers Jason McAddley (7 receptions) and Brandon Lloyd (44 receptions, 4 TD) posted two grabs each, and tight end Terry Jones (8 receptions) logged a couple of catches of his own. Smith has yet to throw his first NFL touchdown pass, and his biggest problem in being efficient thus far has been having time to look downfield. The makeshift 49er line allowed five sacks against the Rams last week, and has now surrendered a total of 45 sacks on the year. The Niners continue to rank dead last in the league in passing offense (117.1 yards per game).

Smith should be able to make some strides against a Houston defense that ranks just 27th in the league against the pass (225.3 yards per game), and has forced opposing quarterbacks into precious few miscues this season. The Texans have a grand total of six interceptions on the year, and no Houston player has more than one. Cornerback Dunta Robinson (81 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and safety C.C. Brown (76 tackles, 1 INT) have been the most consistent members of the secondary, but neither managed an interception off of Jacksonville's David Garrard last week. Garrard passed for a career-high 292 yards in the contest. Brown had a team-high 11 tackles against the Jags. The Texans also rank near the bottom of the league with 34 sacks, but did manage to sack Garrard three times last Saturday. Outside linebacker Shantee Orr (49 tackles, 7 sacks) posted two of the sacks, raising his team lead in that category to seven.

Though Smith's first win received much of the attention for the Niners last week, it was the work of the San Francisco running game that truly fueled the victory for Nolan's squad. Running backs Maurice Hicks (244 rushing yards, 3 TD) and Frank Gore (500 rushing yards, 3 TD, 13 receptions) both played well in the game, with Hicks getting the start and rushing 10 times for 109 yards and a touchdown, and Gore spelling him with 10 totes for 68 yards and a pair of TDs of his own. Hicks' top highlight was a 73-yard touchdown run on the 49ers' first play from scrimmage. With former starter Kevan Barlow (knee) on injured reserve with a knee injury, Gore would need 82 ground yards this week to seize the team lead in that category. San Francisco is 18th in the league in rushing offense (100.5 yards per game) as Week 17 commences.

Houston ranks in a tie for 30th in NFL rushing defense (141.4 yards per game) as Week 17 begins, and allowed the Jaguars to pile up 172 ground yards and four rushing touchdowns a week ago. Inside linebackers Morlon Greenwood (102 tackles, 2 sacks) and DaShon Polk (84 tackles, 3.5 sacks), who rank 1-2 on the team in tackles, will be charged with slowing Hicks and Gore this week. Polk ranked among team leaders with six stops versus Jacksonville last Sunday. Up front, nose tackle Seth Payne (52 tackles, 4 sacks) and end Jerry Deloach (12 tackles, 1 sacks) were both active against the Jags, with Payne recording five tackles and a pair of pass deflections and Deloach contributing six stops on the day. End Gary Walker (29 tackles, 1 sack) was placed on season-ending injured reserve with a torn triceps earlier this week.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Though one of these teams will be declared a winner, it is more realistic to try and determine which will find a way to lose it. Both the Niners and Texans have great expertise in being defeated, after all. Houston is probably the higher-quality team at this stage, but San Francisco will likely come in playing with more emotion. Smith should be able to work somewhat effectively against a Houston defense that doesn't rush the passer or cause turnovers particularly well, and Hicks and Gore should also have their moments in the running game. On the other side of the ball, the Niners have enough defensive playmakers to hold Houston's weapons in check, and should be able to goad the Texans attack into some key mistakes en route to a second straight win.

My Sportsbook Predicted Outcome: 49ers 15, Texans 9