(My Sportsbook) - If you're seeking a feel-good, worst-to-first story, look no further than the Louisiana Superdome, where the
New Orleans Saints will play host to the
Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday.
The Saints' story of resurgence has been well-chronicled, as a road-bound team that finished with a dismal 3-13 record in the wake of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 has returned with a vengeance one season later, opening up an early lead in the NFC South under first-year head coach Sean Payton. New Orleans claimed a half-game advantage on idle Atlanta last week, when the Saints defeated Tampa Bay, 24-21, to move to 2-0 at the Superdome this season. One game separates the top three teams in the division as Week 6 begins, with the Saints (4-1) seeking to fend off the Falcons (3-1) and Panthers (3-2) in the South.
Philadelphia's return to prominence has been of the more run-of-the-mill variety, but has been impressive in its own way. The Eagles have shaken off the sting of last year's 6-10 mark, as well as the soap opera surrounding former wide receiver Terrell Owens, to open up a one-and-a-half game lead in an NFC East division expected to be among the league's strongest in 2006. Last Sunday, the Eagles downed Owens and his new team, the Cowboys, by a 38-24 count to snap a seven-game losing streak within the division. Andy Reid's squad is looking down on Dallas (2-2), the New York Giants (2-2), and Washington (2-3) as Week 6 commences.
SERIES HISTORY
Philadelphia leads the all-time regular season series with New Orleans, 14-8, and has won the last five such matchups dating back to 1992. The Eagles were 33-20 home winners when the teams last met, in 2003, and also took a 21-7 decision in their last trip to the Superdome, in 2000. The last Saints victory in the series came in 1991 at Veterans Stadium, and their most recent home win over the Eagles occurred in 1989.
In addition to the regular season series, the teams have met once in the postseason, a 36-20 road victory for Philly in a 1992 NFC First-Round Playoff.
Reid is 2-0 in his career against New Orleans. The Saints' Payton will be meeting both Reid and the Eagles for the first time as a head coach.
EAGLES OFFENSE VS. SAINTS DEFENSE
If you're looking to devise a short list of NFL MVP candidates at this stage of the season, Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb (1602 passing yards, 11 TD, 1 INT) should be at the top of your list. McNabb, who missed the final seven games of 2005 due to injury, has returned in force, leading the NFL in passing yards and TD passes, while his attack tops the league in both total offense (417.8 yards per game) and passing offense (303.8 yards per game). McNabb has yet to throw for fewer than 288 yards or two touchdowns in a game this season. Last week's 354-yard, two-TD performance came despite the absence of No. 1 receiver Donte' Stallworth (12 receptions, 2 TD), who was nursing a hamstring injury and is expected to miss Sunday's game as well. McNabb turned to the likes of rookie Hank Baskett (7 receptions, 1 TD), who had his first 100-yard game and touchdown catch as a pro, and Reggie Brown (15 receptions, 3 TD), who got into the end zone for the third time this season. Tight end L.J. Smith (20 receptions, 1 TD) and wideout Greg Lewis (11 receptions, 2 TD) have also been frequent McNabb targets this season. The Philly line has allowed 12 sacks through five games, a modest total for an offense that throws the ball as frequently as does that of the Eagles.
McNabb will be seeking to attack a depleted Saints secondary this week, one that will be without starting free safety Roman Harper (26 tackles, 1 sack) for the remainder of the season. Harper, who had played well in this, his rookie season, sustained a torn ACL against the Buccaneers last week. Omar Stoutmire (11 tackles, 1 sacks) and recently re-acquired 34-year-old veteran Jay Bellamy will help replace Harper in the lineup. Cornerbacks Mike McKenzie and Fred Thomas will be responsible for slowing the Philadephia receivers. The Saints pass rush has generated 15 sacks through five games, including a combined five from starting ends Will Smith (3 tackles) and Charles Grant (2 tackles). Grant forced the only miscue by Tampa rookie QB Bruce Gradkowski last week, causing a third-quarter fumble that was recovered by Rodney Leisle to set up a New Orleans touchdown.
Philadelphia received a huge lift last week when running back Brian Westbrook (289 rushing yards, 20 receptions, 6 TD), who had missed the team's previous win over the Packers with a lingering knee injury, shed his questionable status to start for the Birds. Westbrook kept the Dallas defense honest, amassing 86 total yards on 16 touches and scoring his NFL-leading sixth touchdown on a five-yard run in the first quarter. Westbrook is again listed as questionable for Sunday, but is expected to play. If he has a setback, Correll Buckhalter (137 rushing yards, 6 receptions) would be the next man in. The Eagles are 11th in NFL rushing offense (114 yards per game) as Week 6 begins.
When the Eagles attempt to run the football, a pair of very familiar faces will be among those trying to stop them. Defensive tackle Hollis Thomas (14 tackles, 0.5 sacks) and linebacker Mark Simoneau (27 tackles) were both staples of the Philly defense in recent years, with Thomas' tenure with the Birds dating back to 1996 and Simoneau spending the last three years on the roster before being dealt in exchange for Donte' Stallworth during the preseason. Other principles on a New Orleans stop unit that ranks 23rd in the league against the run (123.8 yards per game) are linebackers Scott Fujita (33 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and Scott Shanle (30 tackles, 2 sacks), who are 1-2 on the team in tackles, and high-motored defensive tackle Brian Young (21 tackles, 3.5 sacks).
SAINTS OFFENSE VS. EAGLES DEFENSE
The Saints entered the 2006 season looking to establish the one-two running back punch of Deuce McAllister (380 rushing yards, 4 TD) and Reggie Bush (170 rushing yards, 34 receptions), and that partnership has worked exactly according to plan. McAllister is being asked to get most of New Orleans' tough yards, and has done so to the tune of 4.8 yards per carry. Last Sunday, McAllister rushed 15 times for 123 yards and a touchdown against Tampa Bay, his first 100-yard game since undergoing season-ending ACL surgery early last season. There is no doubt that McAllister has found running room easier due to the presence of Reggie Bush (170 rushing yards, 34 receptions), who has lined up at both running back and receiver and been a headache for every defensive coordinator he has faced to date. Bush, who scored his first NFL touchdown on an electrifying 65-yard fourth-quarter punt return last Sunday, leads the NFL in receptions heading into Week 6.
The job of controlling the New Orleans run will fall to a Philly defense that ranks a modest 16th in the NFL in rushing defense (104.8 yards per game) but has largely avoided the big play, allowing just one run of 20 or more yards. Dallas running backs Julius Jones and Marion Barber III combined for a hard- earned 122 yards on 33 carries (3.7 yards per carry), as middle linebacker Jeremiah Trotter (33 tackles, 1 INT) and defensive tackle Darwin Walker led the run-stopping effort with 15 combined tackles. The Eagles have also received a notable contribution this season from outside linebacker Shawn Barber (33 tackles), who is tied for the team lead in stops after being a part of nine tackles against Dallas. Mike Patterson (20 tackles, 1.5 sacks) has joined Walker in stifling the opposing run from his interior line position in '06.
New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees (1234 passing yards, 5 TD, 2 INT) has been extremely productive for the Saints thus far, posting a healthy 91.6 passer rating and showing no ill effects of the shoulder injury that required offseason surgery following his 2005 season with the Chargers. Brees has worked well with No. 1 wideout Joe Horn (19 receptions), has made a star of rookie phenom receiver Marques Colston (23 receptions, 3 TD), and has allowed Bush to top the NFL receptions list as a first-year player. Brees completed 11 passes for 63 yards to Bush last week, with Horn and Colston combining for seven catches and 86 yards against Tampa Bay. The quarterback's lone touchdown of the day went to tight end Ernie Conwell (7 receptions, 1 TD), his first of the season. The Saints line has allowed just six sacks of the quick-triggered Brees through five contests.
The Eagles used the combination of a furious pass rush and opportunistic secondary to down Dallas last Sunday, as coordinator Jim Johnson's unit harassed Cowboys quarterback Drew Bledsoe into three interceptions, a forced fumble, and seven sacks absorbed. Walker led the hit parade with three sacks and a forced fumble, while ends Trent Cole (6 sacks) and Darren Howard (3 sacks) combined for three more sacks on the day. Cole enters Week 6 tied for the NFL lead in sacks along with Carolina's Julius Peppers. Howard, meanwhile, will be returning to face the Saints, for whom he played from 2000 through 2005. In the secondary, cornerback Lito Sheppard shook off an ankle injury that had shelved him since Week 1 to record two interceptions of Bledsoe, including a 102-yarder that sealed the game in the late stages. Free safety Brian Dawkins (23 tackles) also notched a pick in the contest, his first of the year. Philly is just 26th in the league against the pass (230.2 yards per game), but leads the NFL with 23 sacks through five games.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
One might expect the Eagles to be experiencing a bit of a hangover after last week's big win over the Cowboys, but the M.O. for Andy Reid-coached teams has been a businesslike, bordering on emotionless, approach to success. Philadelphia knows it still has much work to do in a difficult division, and must remain focused in its quest to again become a part of the NFL elite. The Saints' demeanor has also been impressive, as they have summoned the emotion to play hard each week despite what some still believe to be an average base of talent. Expect New Orleans to give Philadelphia its best shot, but also expect a younger, less self-assured group of players to make one more mistake than the veteran Eagles in the fourth quarter en route to the franchise's first loss at the Superdome this season.
My Sportsbook Predicted Outcome: Eagles 28, Saints 22
