(My Sportsbook) - The
Pittsburgh Steelers showed last week that they are not ready to relinquish the Lombardi Trophy, and will try to prove that again this Sunday when they visit the
Atlanta Falcons.
The Steelers opened the season with a victory before sliding into a three-game losing streak. The skid ended last Sunday when Pittsburgh rolled all over visiting Kansas City, pounding out a 45-7 victory at Heinz Field.
Most importantly for the Steelers was the strong performance of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who had been 0-3 as a starter since returning from an injury that kept him out of action in Week 1.
While the Steelers made a statement this past Sunday, the Falcons were handed a tough loss on their home field by the New York Giants. Atlanta held a 14-3 edge early in the third quarter, but the Giants closed the game out with 24 unanswered points.
The score has yet to be close at the end of a Falcons game this season. Their three wins have been by an average margin of 15.7 points, while they were beaten by an average of 16.5 points in their two setbacks.
Last week's loss dropped Atlanta into third place in the NFC South division, which is currently being led by the surprising New Orleans Saints (5-1).
SERIES HISTORY
The Steelers have dominated the series with the Falcons, holding an 11-1-1 advantage, including a 6-1 edge in games played in Atlanta. The last time the teams met, at Heinz Field in 2002, the clubs played to a 34-34 tie, which ranks as the most recent tie in NFL annals. Pittsburgh's last win in the series was a 13-9 triumph at Three Rivers Stadium in 1999, while Atlanta's only win in the series was a 27-16 home victory in 1970.
Steelers head coach Bill Cowher is 3-0-1 in his career against the Falcons, including 2-0 in Atlanta. The Falcons' Jim Mora will be meeting both Cowher and Pittsburgh for the first time as a head coach.
STEELERS OFFENSE VS. FALCONS DEFENSE
Last year, Roethlisberger, a third-year player out of Miami-Ohio, was the youngest starting quarterback ever to win a Super Bowl, but looked like a rookie all over again in his first three starts of this season. Roethlisberger (807 yards, 2 TD, 7 INT) had thrown no touchdown passes and seven interceptions through his first three games, but found his stride against the Chiefs on Sunday. "Big Ben" completed 16-of-19 passes for 238 yards and two touchdowns against Kansas City to help raise his season QB rating to a still- paltry 60.2. Nate Washington (12 catches, 185 yards, 2 TD) hauled in three passes for 68 yards and a touchdown, while Hines Ward (18 catches, 207 yards, 2 TD) added five receptions for 59 yards and a TD. The Steelers are 24th in the NFL with 190.6 passing yards per game.
The Falcons held Giants quarterback Eli Manning under wraps for two quarters of play, but the passing defense collapsed in the latter portions of the game. Manning was just 6-of-12 for 60 yards and two interceptions in the opening half of Sunday's game before tossing for 120 yards and a pair of TDs in the final 24 minutes. One of the reasons for the second-half collapse could have been the result of an injury. Defensive end John Abraham (7 tackles, 3 sacks) returned to field after missing three games with a groin injury and made his presence known with a sack and forced fumble on one play in the second quarter. However, Abraham re-injured the groin and was forced to watch most of the second half from the sidelines. Abraham is listed as questionable for this week's game. Linebacker Demorrio Williams (41 tackles, 1 INT) and cornerback DeAngelo Hall (15 tackles, 4 INT) each posted an interception for the Falcons.
Most of the blame for Pittsburgh's slow start to the season was placed on the shoulders of Roethlisberger, but the Steelers are still primarily a running team. Cowher's club has carried the ball well this year and is ranked eighth in the NFL with 125.8 rushing yards per contest. Kansas City had no answer for the Pittsburgh running game last week, as the Steelers racked up 219 yards on the ground. Willie Parker (434 yards, 5 TD) gained 109 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries, while Najeh Davenport posted 78 yards and a TD on 12 attempts.
The Falcons put forth a pathetic effort against the Giants running game last week, surrendering a whopping 259 yards on the ground. Tiki Barber gained 185 of those yards on 26 carries, but Brandon Jacobs also added 53 yards on 11 attempts. Williams and veteran safety Lawyer Milloy (33 tackles) made a large portion of the stops, posting 11 tackles apiece. Linebacker Keith Brooking (35 tackles) added seven tackles for Atlanta. Despite last week's dreadful performance, the Falcons are 15th in the NFL with 107.2 rushing yards allowed per game.
FALCONS OFFENSE VS. STEELERS DEFENSE
Atlanta's rushing offense has been hands-down the league's best this season. The club is averaging an amazing 232 yards on the ground per game. That's nearly 74 yards more a game than the second-best running team in the NFL (San Diego) and three more yards per contest than the total offense of the Oakland Raiders. Last week the Falcons came in under their season average with 229 rushing yards. Running back Warrick Dunn (511 yards, 1 TD) gained 146 yards on 14 carries and scored on a 90-yard touchdown run. Quarterback Michael Vick (401 yards, 2 TD) added 68 yards and a touchdown on eight scrambles. Rookie Jerious Norwood has 226 yards on 30 carries this year, but managed just nine yards on four attempts last week.
The Chiefs found out last week that yards can be hard to come by when facing this tough Steelers defense, as they managed a total of 213 offensive yards. Pittsburgh's strength is defending the run, and the team is ranked seventh in the league with 78.4 yards allowed per game on the ground. The Steelers stayed well below that average this Sunday as they held Larry Johnson and the Chiefs to just 38 rushing yards. Johnson carried the ball just 15 times for 26 yards, but did score a touchdown. Linebacker James Farrior (34 tackles, 1 sack) was busy with six tackles, while defensive end Brett Keisel (15 tackles, 2 sacks) added four stops.
While Atlanta's rushing offense is high atop the league's standings, its passing offense has been nothing short of anemic. The Falcons are ranked dead last at throwing the ball with just 114 yards through the air each game. Vick (676 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT) completed 14-of-27 passes for 154 yards and an interception, and the fleet-footed QB was also sacked seven times. Tight end Alge Crumpler (16 catches, 194 yards, 1 TD) had five catches for 66 yards, while Michael Jenkins (13 catches, 172 yards, 1 TD) led the wideouts with just three catches for 30 yards.
Pittsburgh forced three turnovers in the passing game last week, and held KC quarterback Damon Huard to 162 yards. Steelers safety Troy Polamalu (33 tackles, 2 INT) was very active as usual, posting a team-high 10 tackles, and also had one of the team's three interceptions. Cornerback Bryant McFadden (11 tackles, 1 INT) and linebacker Rian Wallace (1 tackle, 1 INT) also had picks for the Steelers. Pittsburgh cornerback Ike Taylor (31 tackles, 1 INT) added six stops in the win. The Steelers are currently 20th in the NFL with 209.6 passing yards allowed per game.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
This is going to be a classic battle between teams that love to run the ball, and will be won by the team that dominates the line of scrimmage on both offense and defense. The Falcons have the best rushing offense in the NFL, but the Steelers will be able to slow that down just enough to keep Atlanta from running up and down the field. Also, Atlanta's run-stoppers could be shaken from the terrible showing against the Giants, and the Pittsburgh offensive line's ability to take advantage of that weakness will be the difference in the game.
My Sportsbook Predicted Outcome: Steelers 20, Falcons 17