Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - Sometimes, its easier to make money by staying away from the side and gearing up to play the total. As usual, the UNDER dominated early in the season as defenses have an edge in the first couple of weeks. The UNDER rolled to a 19-12-1 mark, winning out in Week 1 and 2. However, that second week was the last time that the UNDER saw the right side of the ledger.
The OVER for the all the games is 4-0-1 in the past five weekends with an overall mark of 41-24-3 for a 63% winning clip. That figure jumps to 69% in the last two weeks, as the OVER has reeled off 17 wins in the 26 games played.
Tracking all 32 teams, there are 18 squads that have favorable OVER/UNDER trends. For this analysis, a club must have hit the same side in at least three of its last four games or have done so in three straight contests.
Eleven of the 18 teams have favored the OVER, while seven support the UNDER. Based on the numbers reported earlier, one would think that more than 11 of the 18 teams would be on the OVER side, but mathematically speaking, 11 of 18 comes to 61%, which is extremely close to the 63% over the course of the last five weeks.
Only one team has gone UNDER in every game this year and only one squad has finished OVER. The team that has gone UNDER is obviously the Denver Broncos, but can anyone guess the only club to go OVER in all seven of its games? Its not the Colts. Not even the Eagles. Its none other than the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets. Not only have the Jets gone over the total in each and every game this season, they have now gone OVER in 11 straight going back to last year.
The litmus test arrives this Sunday as New York heads to Cleveland. The O/U is currently at 37, and the Jets also have gone OVER in 11 consecutive games when the total was set under 40. However, the Browns are one of the seven teams that favor the UNDER, and the field could be wet as rain is in the forecast for most of the weekend.
Three of the Browns' last four games went UNDER, along with all three home games. Not to be outdone, they have gone under the total in eight-of-10 at home and 15 of their last 20 at Browns Stadium. The last time that these two teams met back in 04, the Jets won 10-7, and the O/U was set at 38.
The pick: the UNDER.
Staying with the UNDER theme, the Broncos will look to make it a perfect seven in a row when they host the Colts on Sunday. Denver has gone under the total in eight straight regular season games and six in a row at home. However, the total has yet to go UNDER in the last three meetings between these two clubs.
Indianapolis has been a hard team to grasp this season with a 3-3 O/U record. One interesting note, though, is that the lowest number set for the Colts this season was 42 1/2, and that came against Jacksonville, a game Indy won, 21-14. Six of Indy's last eight home games have stayed under the total, while five of its last seven road contests went OVER, making this game even more confusing. (All tallies include regular season only.)
FOUR IN A ROW
Three teams have gone OVER in four straight games: San Francisco, Seattle and Kansas City. The 49ers' offense has improved immeasurably this season after averaging only 15 points per game in 05. Quarterback Alex Smith has brought the Niners' "O" up to 21 ppg, giving San Fran a chance to win some games, unlike last year. What makes the OVER an even more attractive play is the fact that the defense has gotten worse. The 49ers are giving up an average of 32 points per contest, five more than last year.
The Niners take on the undefeated Bears on Sunday, so it might be hard for them to rack up the points. Nonetheless, Chicago has gone over the total in its last three games and six of its last eight regular season contests. Facing the SF defense, the Bears could go over the number by themselves, something they have done in three of their last five games!
The pick: the OVER.
Seattle and Kansas City are the other two clubs that have gone OVER in four straight, and ironically, they play each other this Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. Unfortunately, its hard to get a good read, as Matt Hasselbeck will miss the game with a strained ligament in his right knee.
Former Iowa State star Seneca Wallace will make his first career start, but won't have Shaun Alexander and Bobby Engram to help him. Alexander is still out as he recuperates his broken foot, while Engram is still dealing with thyroid problems.
When Hasselbeck left last Sundays game vs. Minnesota, the score was knotted at 10. With Wallace at the helm, the Seahawks managed a mere three points in a little less than a half, and he produced only two drives of 20 yards or more. Also, Kansas City signal-caller Damon Huard is questionable with a strained groin.
The pick: the UNDER.
THREE STRAIGHT
Theres only one team I have yet to mention that has gone OVER in three consecutive games, and thats the Eagles, who also have gone OVER in five of their last six games. Both streaks would have come to an end last Sunday if it weren't for the right leg of Matt Bryant. The O/U was set at 42 for the Philly-Tampa game and the score was 21-20 with 30 seconds left. I wonder who feels worse, the Eagles or the bettors who had the UNDER!
Can the Philadelphia Eagles put that game behind them? It will be very interesting to see how they come out, particularly against Jacksonville, who got roughed up last week by Houston of all teams. Philly has yet to score under three touchdowns in a game this year and is coming back home off two brutal road losses.
Philadelphia is all about the passing game, and the Jaguars have allowed the likes of David Carr and Mark Brunell to throw for a combined 43-64 for 553 yards and five touchdowns. Both the Houston and Washington games were on the road, exactly where this one will be. The key question in terms of the O/U is: Can Jacksonville go stride for stride with the Eagles?
Byron Leftwich played last week with a sore ankle but did not practice on Thursday and may not play. No worries. Back-up David Garrard quarterbacked the Jags to a 4-1 record in the final five regular season games last season, and the team averaged 25 ppg in those five contests. Also, the Eagles' "D" has given up 23 points or more in five of the last six games.
The pick: the OVER.
