(My Sportsbook) - One of the most highly-anticipated matchups of the NFL season will take place this Sunday night at Gillette Stadium, where Peyton Manning brings the undefeated
Indianapolis Colts to face the
New England Patriots in a midseason showdown between the AFC's top two teams.
The Colts bring a 7-0 season record into Foxborough for the second year in a row. Last November, Manning delivered a 321-yard, three-touchdown performance at quarterback, and Indianapolis came through with an impressive 40-21 victory over the defending world champion Pats.
The two-time MVP was even better last Sunday to keep the Colts' unblemished record intact. Manning completed 32-of-39 passes for 345 yards and three scores to lead Indy to a thrilling 34-31 win at Denver, the team which handed New England its lone defeat of the season back in Week 3.
Indianapolis pulled out last week's game with the Broncos on a 37-yard field goal by Adam Vinatieri with two seconds remaining. Vinatieri, of course, was New England's placekicker for 10 years before signing a free-agent deal with the Colts during the offseason and the hero of two of the Patriots' three recent Super Bowl victories with last-second game-winning kicks.
Prior to last season, Gillette Stadium was a house of horrors for Manning and the Colts, who saw both their 2003 and 2004 campaigns end with playoff losses at New England, which went on to win the Super Bowl both years.
The Patriots have looked like world-beaters again, winning four straight since that home setback to the Broncos and outscoring their opponents 117-36 over the streak. New England flexed its muscles in last Monday's matchup with the Minnesota Vikings, posting a convincing 31-7 win on the road to tune up for this clash.
SERIES HISTORY
The Patriots hold a decisive 41-25 edge in their all-time regular season series with the Colts, and had scored seven consecutive regular season home wins and four straight regular season victories over Indy prior to last season's loss. New England was a 27-24 home winner in the previous such meeting, in Week 1 of the 2004 season.
In addition to the regular season series, the teams met in the playoffs in both 2003 and 2004, with New England taking both a 24-14 decision in the '03 AFC Championship and a 20-3 triumph in an '04 AFC Divisional Playoff.
New England is 31-10, including playoffs, against Indianapolis since the Colts moved from Baltimore following the 1983 season.
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is 9-4 against the Colts all-time (including 7-1 with the Patriots), while Indianapolis' Tony Dungy is 3-4 versus New England (including 1-4 with the Colts). Dungy is 2-4 head-to-head against Belichick, including a victory for Dungy's Buccaneers team in the 2000 campaign.
COLTS OFFENSE VS. PATRIOTS DEFENSE
Indianapolis' bread and butter remains a devastating offense which leads the NFL in passing yards (273.7 ypg), ranks second in total yards (382.1 ypg) and is third in scoring (29.3 ppg). Manning, still the engine that drives the Colts' offensive machine, has again put up MVP-type numbers through this season's first half. The brilliant signal-caller tops the league with a 108.0 quarterback rating, while his 1,965 passing yards and 15 touchdown tosses are the second-most among NFL QBs. Future Hall-of-Famer Marvin Harrison (44 receptions, 553 yards, 3 TD) is still nearly automatic from his wide receiver position, but counterpart Reggie Wayne (38 receptions, five TD) has become Manning's favorite target as of late. The 27-year-old currently ranks second in the league with 642 receiving yards, and is coming off a monster outing against the Broncos, in which Wayne caught 10 Manning passes for 138 yards and three TDs. Tight end Dallas Clark (19 receptions, 233 yards, 3 TD) has had an inconsistent year, but his ability to stretch the field makes Indy even tougher to stop. For as much as the Colts throw the football, it's astonishing to think the offensive line has yielded a league-low seven sacks.
The Patriots defense can be vulnerable to the pass, but it's a very opportunistic unit that picked off Minnesota's Brad Johnson four times in last week's rout. The secondary is headlined by Asante Samuel (28 tackles, 3 INT), who's emerging into a top-flight cornerback in his fourth season, while veteran Chad Scott (21 tackles, 1 INT) has provided a physical presence since replacing the injured Ellis Hobbs at the opposite corner a month ago. New England hopes to get back free safety Eugene Wilson (24 tackles, 2 PBU), who's missed three of the last four games with a hamstring issue, to give Scott support against the dangerous Wayne. The Patriots are good at pressuring the quarterback, with pass-rush specialist Jarvis Green (16 tackles, 5.5 sacks) and All-Pro Richard Seymour (18 tackles, 3.5 sacks) -- who has been limited by an elbow injury -- providing heat from the ends. New England sacked Johnson four times on Monday, with reserve outside linebacker Tully-Banta Cain recording a pair of takedowns. The Patriots stand 23rd overall in passing yards allowed (218.7 ypg).
Lately, Indianapolis has been even more lethal on the offensive side because its running game has emerged over the last few weeks. Joseph Addai (447 rushing yards, 1 TD), the Colts' top pick in last April's draft, gets better and better with every game under his belt, and is starting to take more of the load from starter Dominic Rhodes (299 rushing yards, 3 TD). The rookie had his best performance in the Denver win, amassing career-highs of 93 rushing yards and five catches for 37 yards, and is averaging better than five yards a carry on the year. Indy enters the contest with an average of 108.4 yards per game on the ground (17th overall).
New England counters with one of the toughest run-stopping defenses in all of football. The Patriots are yielding a mere 78.3 rushing yards per contest, the third-best mark in the league, and smothered Minnesota's Chester Taylor on Monday. Taylor was held to 22 yards on 10 carries, one week after shredding Seattle for a career-best 169 yards. Seymour and nose tackle Vince Wilfork (26 tackles, 1 sack) are terrific at getting penetration in the opposing backfield, clearing the way for sure-tackling and heady linebackers such as Mike Vrabel (45 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT), Tedy Bruschi (33 tackles, 1 INT) and Junior Seau (41 tackles), who continues to play at a high level at age 37. The daunting presence of two-time Pro Bowl strong safety Rodney Harrison (43 tackles, 1 INT, 1 sack) adds to the challenge of running the ball effectively.
PATRIOTS OFFENSE VS. COLTS DEFENSE
After a slow start to the 2006 campaign, New England's offense has really picked it up over the last month and developed into one of the most versatile units in the game. The Patriots relied heavily on running the football early on, as quarterback Tom Brady tried to get comfortable with his new-look receiving corps. Brady (1,598 passing yards, 14 TD, 4 INT) was finally unleashed last week against Minnesota, and the unflappable signal-caller proceeded to shred the Vikings' secondary. He racked up 372 yards on 29-of-43 passing and threw touchdowns to four different players. Leading receiver Benjamin Watson (28 receptions, 366 yards, 1 TD) had seven grabs for 95 yards in the win, and has flourished into a major weapon at tight end. None of the wide receivers are stars, but the trio of Doug Gabriel (20 receptions, 257 yards, 3 TD), Reche Caldwell (22 receptions, 224 yards, 1 TD) and the ageless Troy Brown (19 receptions, 201 yards, 3 TD) has been effective. Caldwell finished with season-highs of seven catches and 84 yards and scored his first TD as a Patriot on Monday. Protection has been a concern lately, as Brady has been sacked seven times over the last two weeks after going down just five times in the first five games.
Indianapolis has surrendered the third-fewest passing yards (167.9) so far this season, but that's partly because the Colts' run defense has been porous. Opposing quarterbacks are completing better than 65 percent of their throws against a secondary which lost starting strong safety Mike Doss to a season- ending ACL tear in Week 7 and hasn't had standout free safety Bob Sanders in the lineup since Week 2. In addition, starting cornerback Nick Harper (30 tackles, 1 INT) is fighting through a sore knee, although he's expected to play Sunday. There's a chance that Sanders, who is recovering from arthroscopic surgery, could make his return this week. The Colts have also had problems pressuring the quarterback, one of the team's defensive strengths a year ago. All-Pro end Dwight Freeney has mustered only a half a sack this year after amassing 51 over the previous four seasons, but could break out at any moment. Indy's other pass-rush specialist, end Robert Mathis (30 tackles, 2 forced fumbles) leads the club with 4 1/2 sacks.
While the Patriots wisely decided to attack Minnesota through the air last week, this a team that can hurt you on the ground as well. New England ranks eighth in the league with an average of 124.3 rushing yards per game and has a terrific running back tandem in Laurence Maroney (395 rushing yards, 3 TD) and Corey Dillon (333 rushing yards, 4 TD). The battle-tested Dillon does the dirty work between the tackles, while the speedy rookie Maroney is the home- run threat who doubles as a deadly return man. Third-down specialist Kevin Faulk (14 receptions, 123 yards) is a valued receiver out of the backfield.
New England will be raiding an Indy defense that stands dead last in the NFL with an average of 167.9 rushing yards per game allowed and was gouged for 227 yards by Denver's potent ground attack a week ago. The Colts did add some beef to their smallish defensive front with last month's trade for tackle Anthony McFarland (12 tackles), who played in Dungy's system while at Tampa Bay, but the veteran has had a minimal impact so far. The team has also clearly missed Sanders, an excellent run-stopping safety, and won't have tackle Montae Reagor (10 tackles, 1 sack) for a third straight week as he recovers from an October car accident. Cato June (68 tackles, 1 forced fumble) and Gary Brackett (66 tackles, 1 forced fumble) are quality linebackers, but neither has made a whole lot of big plays this year.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Colts have passed every test so far this season, and the way Manning and company picked apart a Denver defense that had been barely scored upon leading up to last week's challenge was certainly impressive. But so have been the Patriots, whose offense has been hitting on all cylinders lately and can beat you through the air or on the ground. Indianapolis was successful in this very same scenario a year ago, but this is a better New England team than last year's and the Colts aren't as good as their 2005 squad, which could actually play some defense. The Patriots and Brady rarely disappoint in big-game situations like this one, and New England's edge on defense and home field will prove to be the difference.
My Sportsbook Predicted Outcome: Patriots 30, Colts 20