(My Sportsbook) - The
Baltimore Ravens have a chance to lock up their first AFC North title and playoff berth since 2003 on Thursday night, when they visit the similarly streaking
Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium.
Baltimore has won five straight since head coach Brian Billick fired offensive coordinator Jim Fassel and took over play-calling duties following a loss to Carolina in Week 6. The Ravens, who have scored 24 points or more in each game of their winning streak, extended their winning run with a 27-0 punishing of the Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday. Baltimore comes into Thursday's game with a handle on the number two spot in the AFC playoff picture, behind only 10-1 Indianapolis. The Ravens and Chargers are both 9-2, but Billick's team holds the head-to-head tie-breaker based on their 16-13 win over San Diego on Oct. 1st.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, is seeking to remain a vital part of the Wild Card picture while not allowing the Ravens to celebrate an AFC North title on Bengals turf. Marvin Lewis' club resuscitated its postseason aspirations with back-to-back road wins over the Saints (31-16) and Browns (30-0), rebounding from a stretch that saw them lose five of six to drop to 4-5. The Bengals enter Week 13 a game back of the 7-4 Broncos and Chiefs for the final AFC Wild Card slot, and are tied with the equally 6-5 Jaguars and Jets.
SERIES HISTORY
Baltimore leads the all-time series with Cincinnati, 13-8, including a 26-20 win when the teams met at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 9. The Bengals had won the previous three meetings with the Ravens, including last year's 42-29 victory at Paul Brown Stadium. Baltimore last won in the Queen City in 2004.
Billick is 10-5 against the Bengals as a head coach. Cincinnati's Lewis is 4-3 against both Billick and the Ravens, for whom he served as defensive coordinator from 1996 through 2001.
RAVENS OFFENSE VS. BENGALS DEFENSE
Ravens quarterback Steve McNair (2068 passing yards, 11 TD, 9 INT) was efficient as usual in the Pittsburgh win, completing 18-of-24 passes for 140 yards with a touchdown and zero turnovers. McNair's 102.8 passer rating for the game was his second-best in Baltimore uniform. The veteran's top target was tight end Todd Heap (51 receptions, 6 TD), who caught a game-high seven passes for 58 yards and his sixth touchdown of the season. Also involved was No. 1 receiver Derrick Mason (47 receptions, 1 TD), who hauled in five catches for 43 yards in the triumph. No. 2 wideout Mark Clayton (48 receptions, 3 TD), who leads Baltimore in receiving yards with 622, caught just two passes for 31 yards in one of his quietest games of the season to date. The Ravens offensive line did not surrender a sack against the Steelers, and ranks near the top of the league with just 16 sacks allowed on the season.
McNair will have to be careful when he looks downfield on Thursday night, as he will be going up against a Cincinnati secondary that intercepted the Browns' Charlie Frye four times last Sunday. Safety Kevin Kaesviharn (42 tackles, 6 INT, 2.5 sacks) and cornerback Tory James (31 tackles, 3 INT) had two picks each for a team that now ranks third in the league in INTs with 16, behind only the Ravens (20) and Bears (17). A major element in the secondary's success was the pressure applied by a Bengals pass rush that managed four sacks. Kaesviharn, end Robert Geathers (8.5 sacks), and linebackers Landon Johnson and Caleb Miller each brought Frye down once. Geathers now has at least a half-a-sack in five of his last six games, with the only occasion he was absent from that column coming against Baltimore in Week 9. Cornerback Deltha O'Neal (33 tackles, 1 INT), who has missed two games with a shoulder injury, has a chance to return for the Ravens game.
The Ravens will look to establish running back Jamal Lewis (735 rushing yards, 6 TD, 12 receptions) early on Thursday night, after the former All-Pro continued his recent resurgence with 66 hard-earned yards and a touchdown on 17 carries against the Steelers last week. Lewis has five touchdowns in his past four games combined, after scoring just once in the club's first seven contests. Other backs helped carry the workload in light of Sunday's one-sided circumstances. Musa Smith (153 rushing yards, 20 receptions) matched a season- high with seven carries, totaling 12 yards; fullback Ovie Mughelli (7 receptions, 1 TD) logged the first four rushing attempts of his NFL career, for 21 yards; and veteran Mike Anderson (127 rushing yards, 1 TD) carried four times for 18 yards and posted a couple of catches.
Cincinnati's battered and oft-maligned front seven played a pivotal role in the shutout of the Browns, limiting four Cleveland running backs to 37 yards on 11 carries for the day. The starting linebacking crew of Miller (83 tackles, 1 sack) in the middle and Landon Johnson (80 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and Rashad Jeanty (34 tackles) on the outside was solid, with Miller tallying a team-leading nine tackles and Johnson and Jeanty pitching in with six stops each. Up front, rookie tackle Domata Peko (32 tackles, 0.5 sacks) contributed four tackles to the proceedings. Linebacker Brian Simmons (29 tackles, 1 INT) missed his fourth straight game with a neck injury, and his status for Thursday's game is in question. The Bengals rank 19th against the run (116.6 yards per game) as Week 13 begins.
BENGALS OFFENSE VS. RAVENS DEFENSE
Cincinnati's opportunity to win on Thursday night will hinge greatly on the ability of quarterback Carson Palmer (2868 passing yards, 21 TD, 8 INT) and wideout Chad Johnson (64 receptions, 7 TD) to keep up their prolific work of the past three weeks. Palmer has thrown for at least 275 yards and three touchdowns in his last three games thanks in large part to Johnson, who set a three-game NFL record with 573 yards in his recent trio of outings. Johnson had seven catches for 123 yards in the win over Cleveland. Palmer was also in rhythm with receivers T.J. Houshmandzadeh (55 receptions, 6 TD) and Chris Henry (27 receptions, 6 TD). Houshmandzadeh caught seven balls for 79 yards and a touchdown in the triumph, while Henry had five catches for 41 yards and his fifth and sixth TDs of the year. The Ravens limited Johnson to four catches for 32 yards in Week 9, but Houshmandzadeh did catch a touchdown pass in the game. Palmer was sacked twice and threw a pair of interceptions in the previous meeting with Baltimore. The Cincinnati line has allowed 30 sacks on the year.
Palmer and the Cincinnati offensive line will have a major task on Thursday night, as they try to hold down a Baltimore pass rush that sacked the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger nine times last Sunday. Ends Terrell Suggs (6 sacks) and Trevor Pryce (8.5 sacks) led the hit parade with two sacks each; linebacker Adalius Thomas (9 sacks) boosted his team-leading sack total by breaking through to Roethlisberger; and fellow LB Bart Scott (6.5 sacks) temporarily knocked the Steelers' QB out of the game with a crushing second- quarter sack. The Ravens' 39 sacks trail only the Chargers (41) in the league. When Palmer is able to take to the air, he will be contending with a Baltimore secondary that has 14 of the Ravens' NFL-leading 20 interceptions. Nickel corner Corey Ivy (15 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) became the 10th different Raven to record a pick in 2006 when he intercepted Roethlisberger on Sunday, and Scott tallied his second INT of the year in the win. Cornerbacks Chris McAlister (32 tackles, 4 INT) and Samari Rolle (31 tackles, 2 INT) will be locked up on Johnson and Houshmandzadeh on Sunday.
Bengals running back Rudi Johnson (890 rushing yards, 8 TD, 15 receptions) failed to post his first back-to-back 100-yard games of 2006 last week, rushing for just 64 yards on 18 carries in the blowout victory in Cleveland. Johnson did score his team-leading eighth touchdown of the year in the game. The bad news for the Cincinnati backfield was the broken ankle suffered by former first-round draft pick Chris Perry (57 rushing yards, 9 receptions). Perry's absence is likely to spell more carries for Kenny Watson (72 rushing yards, 1 TD, 12 receptions), who carried five times for 12 yards and had a 14- yard catch against the Browns. Johnson had 211 yards and three touchdowns in two outings against the Ravens last season, but was limited to 77 yards and one score on 18 totes when the teams met in Week 9.
Though it was the work of their pass rush that made all the headlines last Sunday, the Ravens' run defense was rock-solid as well. With middle linebacker Ray Lewis (71 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT) back following a two-game absence due to a back bruise, Steelers running back Willie Parker was limited to 22 yards on 10 carries for the day. Lewis had a team-high-tying six tackles in the win, and Thomas (59 tackles) chipped in with four stops to go along with his sack and 57-yard fumble return for a touchdown in the third quarter. Defensive tackles Haloti Ngata (21 tackles) and Kelly Gregg (48 tackles, 2.5 sacks) have been at the heart of a run-stopping effort that now ranks second in the league in rushing defense (76.5 yards per game), behind only Minnesota (56.6).
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Houshmandzadeh made a mistake after the Bengals' Week 9 loss to the Ravens, stating publicly that Cincinnati was a better team than Baltimore and ensuring that their AFC North rival would come into this game with sharp focus. With a chance to wrap up the division in their sights, the Ravens were going to be focused anyway, and the receiver's remarks will only exacerbate Cincinnati's problems. The Bengals' patchwork offensive line is going to have trouble protecting Palmer, which means Chad Johnson will struggle to make plays down the field. Cincinnati's offensive inconsistency will play right into the hands of McNair, who will cash in on a couple of short fields, keep his mistakes to a minimum, and punch a ticket to the postseason for the first time since '03.
My Sportsbook Predicted Outcome: Ravens 24, Bengals 17