(My Sportsbook) - If you want to be a star in any strata of the entertainment world, you have to conquer New York.
Inasmuch, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo is at the precipice of stardom, needing only a win at the New York Giants on Sunday to transform himself from nice little NFL story to unquestioned nationwide phenomenon.
Romo is 4-1 as the Cowboys' starter, turning a dysfunctional offensive attack into one of the league's most lethal as Week 13 begins. Romo has 10 touchdown passes in his five NFL starts, including a team record-tying five in Dallas' 38-10 romp over the Buccaneers on Thanksgiving Day. His 110.8 passer rating leads the league, and is more than 10 points better than that of his closest competitor, a guy from Indianapolis named Peyton Manning. Since arriving on the scene, Romo has led the Cowboys (7-4) into first place in the NFC East, with a chance to put two games of distance between his team and its closest competitor, the New York Giants.
The Giants, meanwhile, are in apparent free fall heading into their biggest game of the season to date. The G-Men are on a three-game losing streak which appeared to reach new depths in last week's 24-21 loss to the Titans. Tom Coughlin's crew managed to allow a 21-0 fourth-quarter lead morph into an improbable defeat, a loss that has elicited relentless criticism of the team in the always unforgiving New York media. Earlier this week, the press fanned the flames of an apparent rift between wide receiver Plaxico Burress and defensive end Michael Strahan, with Strahan making vitriolic comments about Burress on a radio show and following them up with a widely-aired tirade against the city's media.
Despite the defeat and ensuing controversy, the Giants remain in line for a Wild Card berth at 6-5, and a win against Dallas would again place them in the driver's seat in the NFC East. New York would own a tie-breaker advantage with the Cowboys if it can complete a sweep of America's Team on Sunday.
SERIES HISTORY
The Cowboys lead the all-time series with the Giants by a 51-35-2 count, but were 36-22 home losers when the teams met in Week 7. The teams split last year's home-and-home, with Dallas winning a 16-13 overtime decision when the teams met in Week 6 and New York returning the favor with a 17-10 victory at Giants Stadium in Week 13. The Cowboys are 0-2 in series road games since last beating the Giants at the Meadowlands in 2003.
The Cowboys' Bill Parcells, who served as head coach of the Giants from 1983 through 1990, has a career record of 4-5 against his former team. New York's Coughlin has a 5-3 record against Dallas as a head coach, and is 5-4 against Parcells, whom he served as an assistant under with the Giants from 1988 through 1990. Parcells' Patriots defeated Coughlin's Jaguars in the 1996 AFC Championship, and his Jets downed Coughlin and company in a 1998 AFC Divisional Playoff.
COWBOYS OFFENSE VS. GIANTS DEFENSE
Romo (1656 passing yards, 13 TD, 5 INT) played the entire second half when the Cowboys played the Giants back in Week 7, completing 14-of-25 passes for 227 yards with two touchdowns and three costly interceptions as Dallas failed to battle back from a halftime deficit to win that game. The Eastern Illinois product threw fourth-quarter TD passes to Terrell Owens (61 receptions, 8 TD) and Patrick Crayton (28 receptions, 3 TD) in the defeat. Last week, Owens posted his second 100-yard game since Romo's arrival, catching eight passes for 107 yards with a touchdown. No. 2 wideout Terry Glenn (46 receptions, 6 TD) had four grabs for 89 yards and a couple of touchdowns, while Crayton continued his encouraging production with four receptions for 68 yards. Tight end Jason Witten (42 receptions, 1 TD) pitched in with three catches for 30 yards. Romo was sacked just once by the Buccaneers, and has been brought down a total of eight times in seven outings.
Holding Romo and the Dallas passing game in check will be much easier if the Giants get key figures like end Osi Umenyiora (hip) and cornerback Sam Madison (hamstring) back in the lineup this week. Umenyiora (19 tackles, 5 sacks) has practiced this week after missing the team's last five games, while Madison (27 tackles, 2 INT) has also appeared that he might be ready after bowing out of four of the Giants' last five contests. Both players are listed as questionable for this week. Umenyiora would likely line up opposite rookie Mathias Kiwanuka (28 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT), whose failure to sack Vince Young on a play late in last week's game led directly to the Giants' loss. Strahan (33 tackles, 3 sacks), who has missed three games with a foot sprain, is doubtful for Sunday. Frank Walker (10 tackles) and R.W. McQuarters (33 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) were the team's starters at corner last week, with Madison on the shelf and Corey Webster (40 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) struggling. Elsewhere in the secondary, safeties Gibril Wilson (67 tackles) and Will Demps (59 tackles) had 10 tackles each against Tennessee.
Establishing the run will likely be a chief priority for a Dallas team that didn't do much on the ground in its last game against the Giants. Julius Jones (853 rushing yards, 3 TD) was held to 30 yards on 13 carries in that loss, while backfield mate Marion Barber III (492 rushing yards, 14 receptions, 11 TD) was quiet with 29 yards on six totes. Last week, it was Barber that did a bulk of the damage, gutting the Bucs for a season-high 83 yards on 16 carries and also scoring a pair of touchdowns through the air. Jones received only limited work in the runaway win, accruing 40 yards on 11 carries. Fullback Lousaka Polite also received some rare touches, with his first seven carries of the season going for 18 yards. The Cowboys are fifth in the league in rushing offense (134.1 yards per game) as Week 13 begins.
The Giants rank 12th in the NFL against the rush (104.5 yards per game), and the team's run-stopping unit appears to be getting healthier as well. Linebacker Brandon Short (19 tackles, 2 sacks) is expected to be back in the lineup after missing all of November with a quadriceps strain, and would take his spot back in a second line of defense that also includes Antonio Pierce (86 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and Carlos Emmons (42 tackles). Pierce, who leads the G-Men in tackles, came up with eight stops and a sack in Tennessee. Up front, tackles Barry Cofield (36 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and Fred Robbins (31 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 2 INT) have been steady all season. Cofield had four tackles against the Titans, while Robbins posted three tackles and a sack.
GIANTS OFFENSE VS. COWBOYS DEFENSE
Looking to end his recent struggles will be Giants quarterback Eli Manning (2345 passing yards, 17 TD, 15 INT), who has thrown just two touchdown passes versus six interceptions during his team's current three-game slide. Manning tossed a pair of picks against the Titans last week, including one in the final seconds that directly led to New York's defeat. The former No. 1 pick has a passer rating of just 76.0 as Week 13 begins. Perhaps more in need of a stronger outing is Burress (44 receptions, 7 TD), who raised questions about his desire and work ethic after giving up on a tackle that came after Manning's first INT of the day. Burress did catch his fourth touchdown pass in five games in the loss, however. David Tyree (13 receptions, 1 TD) has been starting at the other wideout since Amani Toomer (32 receptions, 3 TD) went down with a season-ending knee injury, and logged a couple of catches totaling 16 yards against the Titans. Tight end Jeremy Shockey (44 receptions, 5 TD) hauled in five passes for 39 yards in a losing effort. The Giants line did not allow a sack against the Titans, but has surrendered 20 sacks on the season to date.
Manning and his targets could have some trouble making big connections against a Dallas defense that has allowed just nine touchdown passes all season, tied for the fourth-best figure in the league. Apart from a 53-yard pass to Joey Galloway early in the Thanksgiving Day game, the Cowboys allowed Buccaneers QB Bruce Gradkowski to complete just 9-of-19 passes for 67 yards and a pair of interceptions on the day. Safety Roy Williams (38 tackles) recorded his team- leading fifth INT of the year in the win, and linebacker Akin Ayodele (2 INT, 1 sack) also notched a pick. Cornerbacks Terence Newman (41 tackles, 1 INT) and Anthony Henry (57 tackles, 1 INT) will be matching up with Burress and Tyree this week after not having much work to do against Tampa Bay. There is some concern about the state of the pass rush, which lost its top force, Greg Ellis (4.5 sacks), to a season-ending ruptured Achilles against the Colts. Al Singleton (9 tackles) started in Ellis' former outside linebacker position opposite Demarcus Ware (6 sacks) against Tampa Bay, but did not come up with a sack. Backup end Jason Hatcher (1.5 sacks) was the only Cowboy to bring down Gradkowski in the game.
The Giants' formula for beating the Cowboys back in Week 7 included a heavy dose of running back Tiki Barber (1080 rushing yards, 1 TD, 41 receptions), who knifed through the Dallas defense for 114 yards on 27 carries and also amassed 32 yards on four receptions. Barber has struggled a bit in recent weeks, however, totaling 109 yards on 35 carries (3.1 yards per carry) in back-to-back losses to the Jaguars and Titans. Bruising back Brandon Jacobs (340 rushing yards, 8 TD, 8 receptions) has continued to be visible, however. Jacobs, who carried 10 times for 40 yards and a touchdown against Dallas in Week 7, rushed nine times for a season-high-tying 54 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Tennessee last Sunday. Jacobs is averaging 4.7 yards per carry on the year, and the Giants are seventh in NFL rushing offense (133 yards per game).
Barber will be operating against a Dallas defense that ranks fourth in NFL rushing defense (87.1) despite its poor performance against the Giants in Week 7. The three-man Dallas front of Jason Ferguson (28 tackles) at nose tackle and Chris Canty (21 tackles, 1 sack) and Marcus Spears (34 tackles, 1 sack) at the ends did a good job of slowing the Buccaneers' Cadillac Williams last week, holding the reigning NFL Rookie of the Year to 78 yards on 17 carries. Ferguson and Spears had three tackles each in the game. Inside linebackers Ayodele (59 tackles) and Bradie James (65 tackles, 1 INT) have been rock-solid for most of the year, with James notching four solo tackles against the Bucs and James recording a team-high eight stops.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Cowboys have the Giants at the edge of a cliff, and Sunday will provide an opportunity to push them off. Romo should be able to make serious headway against a Giants defense that though getting healthier, is still in tatters, and there's little reason to expect that the Dallas running game will be held down for long either. On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys need to stop one man - Tiki Barber - to be successful, since Manning and the passing game seem to be well beyond repair. Although the Giants will come out desperate to end their skid, they won't have the healthy horses to stay with the Cowboys. All signs point to a decisive Dallas victory.
My Sportsbook Predicted Outcome: Cowboys 31, Giants 17
