Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - Last July, the Detroit Red Wings were the 8-1 third choice to win the Stanley Cup behind Anaheim (11-2) and Ottawa (6-1). However, since the All-Star game, the Wings have held steady as the 3-1 favorites, while finishing the year with the leagues best record at 54-21-7, good for 115 points. Still, the Presidents' Trophy winner has not won the Cup since the 2001-02 campaign.
One club that will look for revenge on the Red Wings as the postseason moves forward is the team that posted the best record in the second half of the season - San Jose. The Sharks were incredible down the stretch, garnering 38 of a possible 40 points over a 20-game span from February 21 to April 1. It was around this time last year that Detroit knocked San Jose from Cup contention with a 4-2 series win in the second round of the playoffs, and the Sharks have definitely learned from that experience by filling a major hole in special teams play.
At this season's trade deadline, San Jose obtained the services of defenseman Brian Campbell from the Buffalo Sabres. The move was made in order to bolster a power play that was languishing in seventh place in the West at 16.8%. Since then, the PP has been unstoppable, as the Sharks closed out the season at 18.8% and third in the conference.
Those are numbers that cannot be overlooked. Low scoring games are the norm in the postseason, which makes special teams that much more important. Taking a closer look at the San Jose-Detroit series mentioned above, does anyone remember the Sharks' power play percentage in games two through six? Try 3.9%. Don't adjust your eyes because it's true - they scored just one PP tally in 26 tries.
With Campbell on the point, along with the usual suspects - Joe Thornton, Milan Michalek, and Patrick Marleau - expect much-improved numbers beginning in the first round matchup vs. Calgary. The Flames finished the season 42-30-10, but only outscored their opponents by two goals the entire year. San Jose is heavily favored (-360) to win the series and will do so in five games - the first step in its march to the Stanley Cup Finals.
The other three series in the West are up for grabs, as Nashville will give Detroit a fierce tussle. It's best not to overestimate the Red Wings, considering they have lost in the first round twice the last four years.
Five of the eight games in the season series were decided by one goal and the Wings are not a healthy team heading into the playoffs. Most of their role players are less than 100%, including Tomas Holmstrom, who has played only one game since March 5, and Daniel Cleary, a forty-point player on the season, has just two assists in six games back from a fractured jaw.
In addition, Kris Draper and Kirk Maltby are feeling the effects of the long season, as the former missed the last two games with an injured groin and the latter could miss the beginning of the series with a pulled hamstring.
Nashville, at +375, is the first-round upset special.
The Minnesota-Colorado series is a toss-up. The Wild have been the better team all season long, but the Avalanche ended the year winning 13 of their final 19 games. If Peter Forsberg can stay healthy, look for the Avs to post the series victory in seven.
The final matchup in the West has Anaheim favored over Dallas, and for those interested in wagering on the Ducks, you only have to lay $250 to win $100. It sounds like a lot, but for comparison purposes, one must bet $360 to win $100 on the Sharks vs. Calgary, $400 on Montreal over Boston, and $320 on Pittsburgh over Ottawa.
Anaheim could be the most balanced club in the league behind San Jose, while Dallas has scored more than three goals in a game just three times in its last 14, and two of the three came in April when the Stars were pretty much playing out the string awaiting the playoffs. This one will be over in five games.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
The West has gotten the bulk of the accolades in recent years as being the stronger of the two conferences, but the East has compiled more hardware, taking three of the last four Stanley Cups.
Two teams are head and shoulders above the rest in terms of odds, as Pittsburgh at 13-2 and Montreal at 7-1 just about double the Rangers (12-1), Devils (14-1) and Capitals (14-1).
The Penguins, who made the biggest splash on deadline day acquiring Marian Hossa from Atlanta, exploded down the stretch winning nine of their final 13 games. But it wasn't the offense that was the catalyst. Marc-Andre Fleury was unconscious in goal after missing 26 games throughout most of January and February.
From March 2 on, the young netminder was 10-2-1 with a 1.45 GAA and a save percentage of .950. If those numbers remain the same in the postseason, there will be no stopping the Pens, especially with an offense that boasts Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Hossa.
Montreal gained the top spot in the East after Philadelphia downed Pittsburgh 2-0 on Sunday afternoon. Ottawa head coach Bryan Murray has stated he believes the Penguins lost their final game in order to take on his banged-up Senators squad rather than face the Bruins. If that is the case, the Canadiens should send a huge thank you note to Michel Therrien, since Montreal is 8-0 this season vs. Boston. They may not sweep the series, but should move on to the second round.
The three vs. six matchup between Washington and Philadelphia is this season's value play of the year. The Capitals are the hottest club in the entire league with seven consecutive victories and 11 in their last 12 games. Alexander Ovechkin will always be the main focus of the team, but nothing can be taken away from the job Bruce Boudreau did as head coach.
Since taking over for Glen Hanlon back on November 22, the Caps rallied from the worst record in the game to end up in first place in the Southeast Division. Not only that, they picked up 81 points in their final 61 games. When computed for a full 82-game schedule, that comes out to 109 points, which would have placed them number one in the East and second overall behind the Wings.
Add in Cristobal Huet, who won 11 of his 13 starts for Washington with a 1.63 GAA, and you have a recipe for dominance. So why are the Caps only -150 over Philadelphia? Is there something I'm missing here? They should be -300 in this series.
It's true, the Flyers went 2-1-1 in the four games against the Caps, but all four were played prior to the trade deadline. In addition, Martin Biron gave up 12 goals while starting three of the four contests. This series could be over in four straight, with five being the max.
Last but not least, the Rangers battle the Devils in what could be the most exciting round one matchup. New York has owned New Jersey this season with a 7-0-1 record, but four of the contests went to overtime. The Blueshirts are the slight favorites at -120, but this one could go either way.
