Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - There have been many great three-year-old fillies over the last 40 years.
Silverbulletday, the most recent equine female elected to the Hall of Fame, was undefeated in eight tries against her own kind in 1999. However, she ran seventh in the Belmont Stakes that year, and lost twice to older fillies and mares in the Beldame and Breeders' Cup Distaff.
Go For Wand was a champion three-year-old filly in 1990, losing just once (Kentucky Oaks) against her generation. She beat elders in the Maskette and Beldame but her life was suddenly cut short in the BC Distaff when she broke down fighting for the lead with Bayakoa inside the final furlong.
Winning Colors (1988) and Genuine Risk (1980) both proved victorious in the Kentucky Derby, but failed to win either the Preakness or Belmont Stakes.
Ruffian provided the racing world a standard for all fillies to match with 10 consecutive victories until breaking down in the famed match race vs. Kentucky Derby winner Foolish Pleasure. She broke or equaled numerous track records, and is still widely considered the fastest filly ever.
Where does Rachel Alexandra fit on this list? It's way too early to compare her to Ruffian, but the Preakness winner easily belongs with the other four and has a chance to be number two by year's end.
In order for fillies to be regarded as the greatest of their generation, they must prove their worth on two counts: knocking off colts, then disposing older females later in the season. Rachel Alexandra accomplished the former with her Preakness victory; however, the second part of the equation will be the tougher of the two tasks, as she'll have to knock off undefeated champion Zenyatta, most likely on that one's favorite surface at Santa Anita.
Rachel Alexandra overcame many obstacles in garnering her sixth straight win. The quick turnaround from the Kentucky Oaks and the barn change were of little consequence to the daughter of Medaglia d'Oro as she rattled off splits of 23, 46 3/5, 1:11 and 1:35 4/5, the fastest fractions she had run all year. The bay filly was even in a prolonged head-to-head battle with Big Drama for more than half the race, and she still opened up a four-length lead through the stretch before coasting home to win by one.
Not a single horse was able to challenge her from the far turn until the final 1/16th of a mile, when Musket Man and Mine That Bird put in late bids, only to be rebuffed by a hand-ridden Rachel Alexandra.
WHAT THE RACE PROVED
Some might downgrade Rachel's performance on Saturday considering most of the top-level three-year-old colts (Quality Road, I Want Revenge and The Pamplemousse) are sidelined with injuries. Nevertheless, she still defeated the winners of the Kentucky Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass, Illinois Derby, Louisiana Derby, and nine other graded stakes events.
One can also argue that many of the top colts in the race (Pioneerof the Nile, Friesan Fire and Papa Clem) were coming off long and arduous campaigns, but that doesn't hold any water either, as Rachel was also running in her fifth race since mid-February.
The scary thing about the filly is that she wasn't even at her best at Pimlico. Jockey Calvin Borel was insistent that she did not grab the track as well as she had at Churchill Downs. One can only imagine what the margin of victory could have been if she took to the surface!
There is a chance she could return against the boys in the Belmont Stakes, but her connections will not make that decision for at least a few more days. The more probable scenario is a spot in the Mother Goose Stakes vs. fillies at Belmont Park in late June, or a different race against her own kind.
Rachel Alexandra is a remarkable filly, but that was already known prior to the Preakness. What became readily apparent watching the race was the transformation of Mine That Bird.
The little gelding that could proved his win in the Kentucky Derby was not a fluke by finishing second, and with the possible absence of Rachel from the Belmont Stakes, he could be the post-time favorite in the Test of Champions. As of now, only two other Preakness finishers will compete in the Belmont: Flying Private (fourth) and Luv Gov (eighth).
Horses that finish last at high odds (23-1) in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile rarely become stakes winners in their three-year-old campaign, so it's absolutely mind-boggling what Mine That Bird has accomplished since running a dismal fourth in the Sunland Derby at 13-1. The only other horse I can think of who finished first in any major race after running last in the BC Juvenile is Essence of Dubai, who won the 2002 Super Derby (Grade II) after running ninth in the Kentucky Derby and sixth in the Belmont.
(In an interesting twist, Essence of Dubai finished third in the Jim Dandy Stakes that year and the winner of the race was none other than Medaglia d'Oro, the sire of Rachel Alexandra.)
Mine That Bird was in the same position for much of the Preakness as he was in the Derby - last place. Mike Smith, replacing Calvin Borel in the saddle, is known for his wide moves into the stretch and that's exactly where he found himself around the final turn. However, even if he stayed on the rail (which would have been closed off anyway) there was no way he was ever going to pass the winner.
The Derby champ ran his heart out to finish second, completing his final furlong and a half in 18 1/5, a full second faster than Rachel Alexandra. It wasn't good enough for the win, but there's no shame in being the runner-up to the top three-year-old in training.
Musket Man is as consistent a colt as one could find. After losing by almost seven lengths in the Derby, he found himself just a length and one-half behind Rachel Alexandra at the wire in the Preakness, and if Eibar Coa hadn't checked his mount at the 5/16ths pole, the son of Yonaguska might have finished second.
Look for him to be a force at Monmouth Park this summer in the Haskell, a race he could meet up with Big Drama, who hung on well for fifth after engaging Rachel Alexandra on the front end.
Friesan Fire and Pioneerof the Nile will be well-advised to rest in their barns for a couple of months after grueling winter/spring campaigns. The former (10th) showed speed after bobbling at the start, but once again, came up well short when the real running began. At least he didn't run next-to-last this time around. The latter had no apparent excuse for his 11th place finish, and deserves a healthy vacation.
EARLY BELMONT STAKES THOUGHTS
As mentioned, only Mine That Bird, Flying Private and Luv Gov are definite starters for the Belmont. Rachel Alexandra could join them as well, but her connections would be wise to rest her, especially after the Oaks and the Preakness.
Chocolate Candy (fifth in the Kentucky Derby), Summer Bird (sixth), Dunkirk (11th), and Mr. Hot Stuff (15th) will all return to the races for the third leg of the Triple Crown and incidentally, all four are closers just like the three listed above.
The only other two horses currently mentioned as possible Belmont starters are Miner's Escape and Charitable Man.
Coincidentally, they met on August 10, 2008 as first-time starters. Charitable Man was 7-2 and Miner's Escape was 9-2 but the result was a no-contest. Charitable Man won by 11 1/2 with Miner's Escape sixth, beaten 28 lengths.
The two went their separate ways with Charitable Man winning the Futurity in his next start before an injury sidelined him until April. He came back to run seventh in the Blue Grass on Polytrack and then dazzled the New York crowd with a 3 3/4-length score in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park on May 9.
Miner's Escape did not win his first race until his sixth start in early March at Gulfstream Park at odds of 16-1. He then won the Federico Tesio by 4 1/2- lengths, but Tone It Down, who finished third that day, ran next-to-last in the Preakness.
It would be wise not to automatically toss the expected longshot since Nick Zito, his trainer, has won two of the last five Belmont Stakes with Birdstone and Da' Tara.
Unless another trainer enters a so-called speedball, it appears that Charitable Man will have the dream trip in the Belmont sitting right behind Miner's Escape. Keep in mind, that scenario could change if the filly winds up in the Big Apple in early June.
