(My Sportsbook) - It's no longer a division game, but this week's clash between the Packers and Buccaneers represents one of the most intriguing head- to-head matchups in recent memory. Both teams sit at 8-2, and this Sunday's winner will own the best record in the NFL while claiming the inside track to home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Green Bay squandered its opportunity to clinch the NFC North just 10 games into the season with a surprising 31-21 loss to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 11, while Tampa Bay handled its business with a 23-10 triumph over the Carolina Panthers. The Packers haven't lost back-to-back games since October 1-8, 2000, but both of this year's losses have come on the road.
Brett Favre was doomed in the dome once again, as the Vikings rose to the challenge and shut down the best quarterback in the game while prolonging Green Bay's division-winning plans. Favre threw three interceptions last week and the Packers couldn't contain the determined Daunte Culpepper.
This week, the Pack will reunite with the Buccaneers in what has become one of the most heated rivalries in the game. Favre will be eager to put last week's performance behind him, but his old friend Warren Sapp presents a whole new set of problems. set of problems.
Jon Gruden has his Bucs playing at a high level, and Tampa Bay's defense is the best statistical unit in the NFL. The Buccaneers are seeking their first 9-2 start in franchise history, but Green Bay can clinch its division with a win this week combined with a Minnesota loss or tie. Both teams have a lot riding on this game, not the least of which is a genuine dislike between the teams.
"We've got to keep pushing now," said Sapp, "because we've put ourselves in position to win this division."
SERIES HISTORY: The Buccaneers have won four straight at home over the Packers to pull within 28-17-1 in the all-time series. These teams last met on November 4, 2001, when Green Bay punt returner Allen Rossum returned a punt for a touchdown with three minutes remaining to lead the Packers to a 21-20 win.
Green Bay coach Mike Sherman is 2-2 versus the Bucs, while Tampa Bay's Jon Gruden is 0-1 against the Packers.
PACKERS OFFENSE
Luckily for Favre, the Bucs don't play indoors. Last week, Favre was out of his element and he had his worst game of the season. But while last week was ugly, how many times has Favre played poorly in consecutive games? In all likelihood, he will bounce back in a big way and get his offense right back to where it had been before stubbing its toe at the Metrodome.
There won't be another option for the Packers, since Tampa Bay is so stingy on defense. Favre must rebound and find the form that had him on pace for his fourth MVP award at season's end. If not, the Packers could be in for a rare losing streak.
The Buccaneers hold opponents to an NFL-best 252.1 yards per game and allow only 11.9 points per game (also best in the league). The Packers need everything possible from their offense against this kind of a foe. That said, WR Donald Driver and RB Ahman Green must bring their "A" game this Sunday.
Green carried only 18 times last week, gaining 71 yards. He needs to be a bigger part of the offense this week even though the Buccaneers are so solid against the run.
Favre is thankful that he won't have to deal with Tampa Bay as a division opponent anymore.
"I'm not going to miss them much," said Favre. "As long as those guys -- Warren Sapp, John Lynch and the other guys -- are there, they're going to be tough to deal with. No team is easy, but they've always been tough."
Granted, the Bucs have not faced a quarterback as dangerous as Favre, but they allow only 155.0 yards per game through the air.
BUCCANEERS DEFENSE
If the Bucs think they can play the way they did last week and have such a favorable result, they will be in for quite a shock. The truth is, Tampa Bay needs to play its best against an angry Favre. Last Sunday, the Buccaneers forced four turnovers against the Panthers, but Favre isn't exactly Rodney Peete.
Sapp always steps his effort up a notch against Favre, so expect the sparks to fly in this matchup. He will need to play his best, since DT Anthony McFarland, who's missed two games since breaking his right forearm on October 27, will not play this week.
Cornerback Ronde Barber had surgery on Monday on his broken left thumb and is questionable for this week's game. Barber was injured during the third quarter of last week's victory over the Panthers, but did not leave the game. X-rays revealed a break, and the Bucs are hoping he can be fitted with a protective cast or padding that will allow him to play against the Packers.
"Right now he is questionable for this game...Obviously, we are very concerned about him. He is a great football player," Gruden said.
LB Derrick Brooks has been playing at a high level all season, and he will be equally important against Favre and Green. Tampa Bay has 18 interceptions on the season, and has 22 takeaways.
BUCCANEERS OFFENSE
Tampa Bay hasn't become a first-place team with much help from its running game. The Buccaneers average only 92.2 rushing yards per game, and RB Michael Pittman has not rushed for over 62 yards in a game this year. He is averaging 3.4 yards per carry and has not scored a single touchdown all season. Other than a surprise 126-yard game against Cleveland in Week 17, RB/FB Mike Alstott has struggled to produce a consistent factor in the running attack.
Last week, Tampa Bay gained a total of 67 yards rushing. The Packers allow the second-most yards per game on the ground in the NFC (136.1), so maybe the Bucs can get their running game jump-started this Sunday.
If not, the pressure will fall on QB Brad Johnson to navigate the offense. The oft-criticized signal-caller got a boost from his offensive line last week, which helped him gain some much-needed confidence. Johnson threw for 253 yards and two TDs and avoided an interception.
In his past two games, Johnson has thrown for seven touchdowns and no interceptions while getting sacked only twice. In the three previous games, he had one TD, three INTs and endured seven sacks.
WR Keyshawn Johnson has been the direct beneficiary of his QB's success. In the past two games, Keyshawn Johnson has caught 16 balls for 207 yards and three touchdowns. He will be a tough assignment for the Packers this week, since the Packers allowed Minnesota WR Randy Moss to catch six passes for 115 yards and a score last Sunday.
PACKERS DEFENSE
If the Packers can put last week behind them, they should be able to contain the Bucs. Against Minnesota in Week 11, Green Bay surrendered 425 yards of offense to the Vikings -- 218 of which came via the run. Tampa Bay's ground game isn't much of a threat, but its passing game could be.
Green Bay allows 197.3 yards per game through the air, a respectable number which ranks sixth in the conference. The Packers would love to apply pressure to Brad Johnson and shake his growing confidence before he can get into a rhythm. DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila is quite the pass rush specialist, and he will create some problems in Tampa Bay's backfield.
The Buccaneers have steadily improved along the offensive line, but suspect OT Kenyatta Walker could get exposed by Gbaja-Biamila, who has the third-most sacks in the NFL (nine).
Green Bay leads the league with 29 takeaways, and Johnson seems destined to make some mistakes. Rookie S Marques Anderson has developed into quite a player, allowing the team to take more risks in the defensive backfield. With that kind of comfort, the Packers could shut down Tampa Bay's passing game to a virtual standstill.