Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - The last time Southern California hosted Stanford in 2007, the nation was stunned when the 41-point underdog Cardinal got the best of the high and mighty Trojans.
Stanford came into that game with only two wins in its previous 18 contests while USC was riding high on a 35-game home winning streak. However, those numbers couldn't stop the heavy underdogs as Stanford came through with the one-point victory.
It was the first win for the Cardinal over the Trojans since '01, ironic as that game was also played in Los Angeles. Southern Cal is 47-2 in its last 49 games at the Coliseum with the only two losses coming against Stanford!
After the stunning defeat in '07, the Trojans have rebounded to win 12 straight at home but they are only 3-5-1 ATS in nine conference games, including a pair of failed covers in the only two Pac-10 home games this season.
Speaking of '09, Southern Cal is a miserable 2-7 ATS despite a 7-2 SU mark. The Trojans have also been extremely vulnerable against exceptional offensive clubs, allowing 128 points in five games to teams averaging four touchdowns or more per game. That's a 26 ppg average on the defensive side of the ball. (They've given up 34 points total in the other four contests.)
Stanford is averaging 34 points per game, good for 18th best in the country and Jim Harbaugh's squad is actually ranked ahead of USC in rushing, passing, scoring and total offense!
The Cardinal is also hitting at a 44% clip on third-downs, an area the Trojans have struggled all season long. In fact, only 14 teams in the country have a lower third-down conversion percentage than USC's 32%.
Defensively, Stanford has allowed 25 ppg, its lowest total since '04, the same year the Cardinal lost by only three points to the eventual national champion Trojans. However, the unit has faltered of late giving up 123 points vs. Oregon State, Arizona and Oregon in three of the last four games.
Will USC be able to capitalize on Stanford's weakness? Last week I brought up the mind-blowing statistic of how the Trojans gave up the most points in a three-game stretch in school history when they allowed 110 to Notre Dame, Oregon State and Oregon. The defense came up huge against Arizona State but the offense went into the tank.
After putting up 34 points vs. the Irish and 42 against the Beavers, USC has scored only one offensive touchdown while converting one field goal in the last six quarters! Take away the 75-yard touchdown pass to Damian Williams against Arizona State and Matt Barkley has completed just 11 of his last 37 passes for 86 yards and two interceptions!
Oregon was barely able to match strides with Stanford because the Ducks are one of a few Pac-10 teams capable of scoring points in bunches. If the Trojans fail to score at least three touchdowns, they could lose their third game of the season for only the first time since '01.
Stanford is 3-7 SU and 7-3 ATS the last 10 meetings with USC with all three SU victories coming on the road. More importantly, the Cardinal is 2-0 both SU and ATS vs. the Trojans the only two seasons the club finished above .500 since 99.
The only way Stanford fails to cover against USC is if the entire team hasn't come down from the emotional high of knocking off Oregon last Saturday. However, with the Trojans on board this Saturday and a chance of winning the Pac-10 title still in reach, look for the Cardinal to keep on trucking.
Take Stanford plus the points.
AFTER 10 WEEKS
I went 9-6 last week for a 10-week total of 87-74-2, good for 54%. There were zero Five-Star selections so the season total stands at 3-4. The Three-Star plays are now 27-25-1 after a 2-1 week.
The Two-Star picks finished 4-1 for a 31-18-1 overall mark while the One-Star choices went 3-4 for a 26-27 record.
As a reminder, the Five-Star plays are when my Power Plays and Key Plays coincide. The Three-Star selections comprise the rest of my Power Plays: games where there's at least a five-point differential between my line and the actual line. The Two-Star picks are the remaining Key Plays and the One-Star plays are the secondary selections.
THREE-STAR PLAYS
There are only three picks for the second straight week: Tulane (at Rice), Florida International (vs. North Texas) and Wyoming (at San Diego State).
TWO-STAR PICKS
You have to hand it to Bill Lynch and the rest of the Indiana coaching staff for getting the Hoosiers to come out fighting each and every week despite six losses in the last seven games.
Indiana has covered three of its last four with the lone ATS defeat coming vs. Iowa, a game the Hoosiers led by 27.5 points (against the spread) with just 15 minutes left to play.
This week, they travel out to Beaver Stadium to take on a Penn State team fresh off a crucial home loss to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions are 1-6 ATS the last seven years in the game following the Buckeyes so look for the underdog to keep this one close.
Take Indiana plus the points.
The other Two-Star plays besides Stanford and Indiana are North Carolina State (vs. Clemson), Duke (vs. Georgia Tech), Utah (at TCU), California (vs. Arizona) and Kansas (vs. Nebraska).
ONE-STAR PICKS
Go with UNLV (at Air Force), Illinois (vs. Northwestern) and Kentucky (at Vanderbilt).
